idcrypt - A total of 28,000 Bitcoin options contracts with a notional value of approximately $2.25 billion are set to expire on Friday, April 4. While this event follows a familiar weekly pattern in the crypto derivatives market, investor sentiment remains cautious amid heightened volatility, exacerbated by ongoing global economic policy uncertainty, including erratic tariff decisions from the Trump administration. This week’s contracts carry a put/call ratio of 0.88, indicating a relatively balanced distribution between long and short positions. This equilibrium highlights a market in a state of tension, with no clear directional dominance, adding complexity to any short-term forecasts for Bitcoin’s price action following the expiry.
The current "max pain" point—the price level at which most losses occur for option holders—is positioned at $82,000. This level is particularly significant for market makers and institutional players, who often conduct strategic maneuvers around expiry to optimize returns or mitigate exposure. Open interest (OI) data shows the highest concentration at the $70,000 strike price, suggesting a substantial number of participants are hedging against further downside. However, on the other side of the spectrum, there is also notable open interest at the $100,000 level, reflecting medium- to long-term bullish conviction among certain cohorts of investors.
Crypto derivatives analytics firm Greeks Live noted that the current market stance is “cautiously bullish,” especially after U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on global tariffs. Still, many market participants remain skeptical about the sustainability of this news-driven rally, warning that the momentum may quickly fade without continued support. Adding fuel to speculation, some traders pointed to unusually heavy buying activity in the $75,000 to $77,500 range just hours before the tariff announcement, calling it a “clear case of insider knowledge.” This has reignited long-standing concerns over information leakage and market manipulation, issues that continue to plague the crypto ecosystem.
In addition to Bitcoin options, approximately 183,000 Ethereum options contracts are also expiring today, with a combined notional value of $283 million. The ETH put/call ratio is slightly higher at 0.92, with a max pain point at $1,750, signaling more bearish pressure compared to Bitcoin. The total notional value of crypto options expiring today reaches approximately $2.5 billion, marking one of the largest expiry events this quarter. Nevertheless, spot market activity remains relatively muted, as most traders have already adjusted their positions ahead of time, dampening the likelihood of immediate price shocks.
Overall crypto market capitalization has slid 3.6% in the past 24 hours to $2.65 trillion. Bitcoin, which reclaimed the $83,000 level on Thursday, dipped back below $79,000 following a weaker-than-expected CPI report, before recovering to around $80,000 during Friday’s Asian session. Ethereum continues to underperform, shedding 4% to hit $1,540, while select altcoins such as ADA, AVAX, and HBAR showed marginal daily gains. From a broader perspective, Bitcoin has been on a steady decline since its all-time high in January, with a drawdown of 26%. The interplay of macroeconomic forces, geopolitical tension, and technical pressure from massive derivatives expirations creates an environment of heightened uncertainty—demanding rigorous risk management and strategic positioning from all market participants.